Beyond Seasonal Stockpiles: Assessing East Africa’s Readiness to Combat Food Insecurity and Nutritional Decline
East Africa is among the most arable regions globally, with the potential to overcome regional food insecurity and become a significant food crop exporter. Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda contribute almost 40% to Africa's total cattle. Yet East Africa remains one of the world’s most food insecure areas due to extreme weather patterns, ongoing conflicts, inadequate funding for food security, and mismanagement of resources. This is set to worsen with climate change as erratic weather, reduced crop nutritional quality, higher pest populations, and increased crop and livestock diseases further strain food systems.
Figure 1. A visualisation of the prevalence of undernourishment in Africa across time.
In 2022 69.2% of East Africans were moderately to severely food insecure, with majority falling under the latter. East Africans fall short of the recommended intake for almost all food groups, except for red meats which are overconsumed. Malnutrition – an imbalance or lack of necessary nutrients – can occur because of food insecurity but is also possible when food is available.
Figure 2. A comparative graph demonstrating the dietary intake of all major food groups in East African adults aged 20 against the recommended intake.
Food security is becoming an increasingly political issue worldwide as growing populations face declining food production and quality.This article examines East Africa’s challenges and progress in addressing food insecurity amid escalating impacts of climate change.
Consequences of Climate Change on Food Security and Nutrition
In East Africa, the cost of a healthy diet doubled between 2019 and 2020, while the GDP remained relatively unchanged. However, it is important to approach such figures with caution, as officials sometimes falsify numbers for personal gain. A notable instance occurred in April 2020, when four senior Ugandan officials were arrested for inflating prices of relief food intended to support vulnerable populations during the pandemic.
Figure 3. A graphical representation of the change in the cost of a healthy diet in Africa from 2017 to 2021.
Nonetheless, the situation risks worsening with more extreme weather events, atmospheric CO2 levels, pest invasions, and disease prevalence. The East African diet consists mainly of rain-fed agriculture, yet the region is expected to experience increased droughts and flooding events. This would disrupt vital planting and harvesting schedules, which depend on consistent rainfall patterns, often leading to poor germination, wasted seeds, and significantly reduced crop yields, culminating to food insecurity.
For food to be considered nutritious, dietary diversity is essential. However, a report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) found that around 63% of the East African population lack access to nutritious food, leading to ‘hidden hunger’ where people suffer from nutritional deficiencies. Dietary monotony is expected to intensify with the disproportionate effect of increasing temperature and CO2 levels on C3 crops (wheat and rice) and C4 crops (maize, millet, and sorghum). This is because C4 crops experience greater yields under increased CO2 and temperature conditions, whereas C3 crops behave inversely. Malnutrition is further reinforced by urbanisation which drives consumption of refined and processed foods.
Furthermore, climate variability in East Africa has intensified pest infestations and disease outbreaks in livestock, crops, and fisheries, exacerbating food insecurity. Livestock are immunocompromised when temperatures exceed 30°C, while disease vectors (mosquitoes, ticks, etc) expand their geographic range and thrive in extreme temperatures. For instance, flooding creates favourable conditions for mosquitoes that spread Rift Valley fever, causing livestock and human deaths, and dire socio-economic consequences.
This exemplifies that animal diseases disproportionally impact the poor in climate sensitive areas. Additionally, crops face a similar fate of suboptimal health and therefore disease susceptibility, while crop pests face favourable conditions in response to climate induced temperature changes. Maize, for example, is the most grossly produced crop in Sub-Saharan Africa, yet every degree day spent over 30 °C reduces the final maize yield by 1% ‘even under optimal rainfed conditions.
Building Climate Resilience in Agriculture
To combat the risk of decreased crop yields in harsher weather, irrigated agriculture can act as an insurance policy in the face of droughts. However, this method is mostly unaffordable, especially in regions with limited water access. A cheaper alternative would be to produce climate-resistant crops that withstand droughts, floods, and extreme heat. Genetic modification, a less common approach, directly targets genes for climate resilience but faces resistances. However, even selectively bred climate-resilient crops see limited adaptation among smallholder farmers due to barriers like limited information access, financing, and supporting governance – highlighting critical areas for improvement.
Similarly, improving nutritional quality in food can be achieved through biofortification, by conventional breeding or gene editing. It is considered one of the most sustainable and cost-effective solutions to undernutrition, with a ratio of 17:1 USD when comparing worth of benefits to expenditure. To combat anaemia, HarvestPlus, a biofortification organisation, alongside the Rwanda Agriculture Board developed iron enriched beans that currently make up 20% of all beans grown in Rwanda.
Considering the multi-faceted contributors to malnutrition in East Africa, multiple approaches must be considered in addition to biofortification. A measure for malnutrition is household dietary diversity, an indicator of economic ability to access various nutrients. Studies in Ethiopia and Tanzania found a strong correlation between market access for smallholder farmers and dietary diversity scores, with proximity to markets influencing access to diverse foods. Additionally, improving rural education on climate-adaptive farming and encouraging diverse crop production are essential steps. Ultimately, effective governance is crucial to implement these initiatives and support sustainable improvements in food nutrition.
East Africa is underprepared for increasing pest populations and disease outbreaks. This is evident in current pest management methods where farmers typically overuse pesticides: in Kenya pesticide usage increased by 47% every season in 3 years, Ugandan tomato growers spray their crops twice a week, and many pesticides in Rwanda and Burundi are WHO Class II in hazard severity.
Moreover, consumers are unaware of the environmental and health consequences of pesticide covered food, and existing policies are poorly implemented to mediate these issues. An alternative and non-hazardous crop protection method would be integrated pest management (IPM). However, import-oriented farmers aren’t incentivised to adopt this method, unlike export-oriented farmers who must comply to global market standards.
IPM is a combination of pest management controls including biological controls, mechanical methods, and if necessary chemical applications. Presently, Kenya leads Africa’s biopesticide market, using biological controls like Metarhizium anisopliae, a fungus that acts as a natural predator to various pests. Another implementation of IPM is through genetic modification of crops designed to include traits like pest resistance, and therefore reduce dependence on chemical pesticides. Still, East African countries are hesitant to adopt this method.
Weighing Outcomes of Genetically Modified Crop Adoption
The primary distinction between conventional and genetically modified (GM) crops lies in the precision and speed of adding desired traits. While conventional breeding can reduce genetic diversity and resilience, GM crop technology allows for the targeted addition of specific traits, without losing other favourable characteristics. For example, a crop selectively bred for taste may lose its natural pest defences (like a bitter flavour); rather than crossbreeding with a wild variant and risking trait dilution, GM can reintroduce just the needed defence gene. GM crops have proven to have increased yields, lower costs, reduced agricultural driven land loss, and significantly reduced pesticide/herbicide usage. Despite these benefits and the scientifically backed assurance of safe consumption, GM crops are rarely adopted, especially in Africa.
Figure 4. A chart depicting GP crop adoption and commercialisation across Africa.
Kenya’s High Court banned the importation, distribution and adoption of GMOs, a decision strongly supported by the Kenya Peasants League (KPL), which represents smallholder farmers and consumers. KPL’s national coordinator expressed concern over potential external pressure to introduce GMOs ‘illegally and unconstitutionally,’ reflecting widespread public scepticism. This scepticism largely stems from distrust in GMO advocates, such as the Gates Foundation – a major proponent of GMOs in Africa and a partner to Bayer, a leading GM seed producer –which faces ongoing criticism regarding its agricultural programs across the continent. Namely Kenya, where concerns over the foundation’s very recently granted legal privileges incited an official statement to justify its position.
While GM crops offer various benefits, they also raise environmental concerns, such as unintended gene transfer leading to herbicide resistant weeds, and socio-economic impacts as patent-holding companies consolidate control, placing local farmers at a disadvantage.
Conclusion
East Africa is at the frontlines of the battle against food insecurity and the nutrition crisis exacerbated by climate change, conflicts, and systemic issues. The region’s significant agricultural potential is offset by extreme weather, pest invasions and limited access to diverse, nutritious food, leaving millions vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. Addressing these issues requires a multifaced approach. This includes improving climate resilience, investing in biofortification, enhancing market access for smallholder farmers, and implementing pest and disease management systems. The urgency of the matter cannot be overstated, without immediate and robust action the region’s stability, health and economic future are at risk.
