East Africa’s Drought Crisis: An Exploration on Arid Induced Disasters
Despite contributing to only 4% of global energy-related emissions, Africa bears the brunt of exacerbated climate consequences. By 2050, it is projected that East Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) could decline by approximately 15% compared to a scenario with no climate impacts. The region is increasingly threatened by droughts which have far-reaching impacts on both power supply and food security. In 2022 alone, drought and famine claimed the lives of 2500 people in Uganda and affected eight million in Ethiopia.
Figure 1. Illustration of climate-induced crises in Africa in January to October 2022.
Droughts are defined as prolonged periods of below-average precipitation and manifest in various forms including meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, with each posing unique challenges to the region’s ecosystems and economies. The prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa from 2020 to 2030 marks one of the longest on record. It severely impacted water availability in a region heavily reliant on hydropower as its primary energy source. Moreover, the area is experiencing an increase in the frequency and duration of drought episodes, underscoring the need for sustainable solutions to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
This article will examine the impacts of droughts in East Africa and the necessity for strategic planning to avert imminent crises. Using Zambia and Botswana as case studies, this piece will illustrate the challenges posed by hydropower dependency and food insecurity. Possible solutions include policies that promote energy diversification - particularly solar power - upgrading energy infrastructure and investing in agricultural adaptations like drought-resistant crops. Additionally, the importance of technological advancements to enhance drought preparedness, the role of public engagement in empowering communities and fostering emotional resilience, and holistic climate-risk preparedness strategies in the region will be highlighted.
Droughts and Hydropower Dependency
Globally, the most prevalent source of renewable energy is hydropower contributing to 44.44% of electricity production. Energy demand is expected to increase by 56% before 2040, paralleling the expectation of 77 new hydropower projects by 2027, 27 of which are expected in East Africa. Countries that make up the Nile River basin, especially Uganda and Ethiopia, depend largely if not entirely on hydroelectricity, and are therefore more vulnerable to the inhibitory effects of climate induced droughts.
Figure 2. Bar graph depicting the projected renewable energy source distribution in sub-Saharan Africa from 2021 to 2027.
Hydropower capacity in East Africa is expected to grow up to 6% by the end of this decade, driving new projects despite climate change concerns. Droughts reduce water levels, limiting hydroelectric generation and necessitating reliance on diesel generators, which paradoxically worsens climate impacts. This raises questions about the sustainability of new hydropower projects, particularly for nations lacking infrastructure and maintenance capacity.
Zambia exemplifies the vulnerability of hydropower dependency and insufficient infrastructure maintenance, offering a cautionary tale for East Africa. Prolonged droughts have led to power outages and load shedding lasting up to 15 hours a day, largely due to overreliance on the Kariba Dam which supplies 37% of Zambia’s power. Consequently, over half of the population face food insecurity, disease exposure, disruptions to education, and negative behavioural coping mechanisms.
In response, UNICEF Zambia collaborated with government ministries and key actors to strengthen evidence informed emergency preparedness through rapid quantitative assessments. Zambia’s governing entities successfully gained real-time insight on community perceptions concerning the effects of droughts, allowing for more effective policy making and implementation. East African nations can adopt and contextualise these strategies as pre-emptive measures to address similar vulnerabilities.
Agricultural Toll
The East African economy is expected to grow at a 6.1% GDP compound annual growth rate (CAGR), forecasting it as one of the fastest growing economic regions globally. Given that agriculture is a key economic sector for countries in the region, droughts not only jeopardise food security but ultimately, economic progress. This creates a vicious cycle where declining agricultural output due to drought exacerbates food insecurity. This in turn undermines economic stability and development. This issue is of pertinence as East African agriculture is predominantly rain-fed, making it vulnerable to droughts.
Figure 3. Share of GDP for East African countries.
According to the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), an estimated 74 million East Africans faced acute food insecurity in February 2024, with droughts being a major contributor. This situation is worsened by rising food prices and job insecurity as agriculture is a major employer across the region.
Botswana’s response to drought-induced food insecurity offers valuable lessons for East Africa. The country has successfully implemented drought mitigation strategies. These include an efficient food distribution system for vulnerable populations, an expanded employment scheme for emergency income, water supply support through local councils, and agricultural relief through free seed distribution. These efforts have proven effective as Botswana has suppressed malnutrition rates despite frequent droughts which occur seven out of every ten years.
Botswana has also reduced its dependence on foreign aid, growing in self-sufficiency by fostering regional alliances and maintaining control over national resources. Replicating its success in East Africa may be challenging due to differences in financial resources, as Botswana benefits from diamond revenues. Additionally, the political will to prioritise drought response through efficient governance coupled with elite cooperation, has been critical in Botswana. In other East African countries, governments and elites may be less cooperative if the consequences of drought are not as immediately visible, necessitating greater external pressure and incentives to induce climate resilience action.
Power Mitigation and Food Crisis Strategies in East Africa
A key strategy to address drought-induced crises is energy diversification. A reduction in hydropower dependence in East Africa by investing in other renewable energy sources could better distribute power where needed. Solar energy is a particularly promising avenue, with prices declining from $0.417/kilowatt-hour in 2010 to $0.048/kilowatt-hour in 2021. Unlike wind and hydropower, which in certain regions could experience a 40% decline in energy production due to climate change, solar energy is less impacted making it a more reliable option. Additionally, Africa holds great potential for large-scale production and supply of hydrogen energy. However, several barriers hinder its feasibility, namely corruption, lack of skills and resources, inadequate legal frameworks, as well as limited financing for infrastructure.
Upgrading energy infrastructure is a critical focus in mitigating the effects of climate-related disruptions, seeing as infrastructure is a determinant of development and, therefore resilience to climate change. Africa’s hydropower infrastructure is aging with 60% of it being over two decades old. This necessitates more resilient dams, improved power grids, and energy storage systems. Zambia’s reliance on diesel generators when hydropower plants fail highlights the risks of outdated infrastructure, further perpetuating greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately lead to more droughts.
Furthermore, investing in agricultural adaptation strategies like farming drought-resistant crops, improving irrigation systems, and sustainable water management would combat food insecurity during droughts. This would be even more effective by adopting regional cooperation. Shared power grids, food trade agreements, and joint disaster management strategies can help create a more resilient East Africa. As Nigeria’s Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, put it; ‘To move fast, you move alone, but to move far, we must move together.’
Ultimately, the cornerstones in mitigating drought induced crises are policy and technology implementation. Botswana, for instance, imported consultants to develop feasible frameworks for the livestock sector based on accurate data. Technology can enhance early warning systems for better drought prediction and crisis management in East Africa. Currently, African countries are less likely to issue climate risk alerts, which increases vulnerability. In response, projects that leverage satellite data and AI-powered climate models to monitor weather patterns are being developed to predict extreme weather thresholds to issue timely warnings. Additionally, mobile platforms can quickly disseminate alerts and real-time information which helps communities stay informed and contribute to preparation efforts.
Public engagement can further contribute to sustainable climate action while alleviating pressures on fragile government structures. Awareness campaigns focused on energy conservation, efficient water management, and sustainable food practices can help empower citizens while fostering agency and psychological resilience. A by-product of increased public engagement is an overall boost in morale during natural disasters that breed self-destructive behaviours. The holistic approach of awareness campaigns thus addresses physical consequences of droughts while strengthening mental health and resilience of communities.
Conclusion
Considering worsening drought conditions, it is imperative that East Africa borrows climate-sensitive approaches from countries like Zambia and Botswana to avert impending power and food crises. The lessons drawn from this comparative piece underscores a need for proactive measures in addressing vulnerabilities associated with hydropower dependency and food insecurity. Policies that promote energy diversification, climate-resilient agriculture, infrastructure investments, and that ultimately enhance the well-being of communities should be enacted swiftly to achieve long-term regenerative practices. The steady development of East African economies hinges on a collective commitment to sustainability and resilience in the face of climate change.
