Trump’s Triumphant Turnover: What Donald Trump’s Presidential Victory Means for East Africa’s Future
Donald Trump has returned to the White House with an emphatic victory over his opponent – now outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris. As the ominously titled ‘orange man’ retrieves the highest seat of the world’s foremost superpower, the rest of the world awaits what lies ahead for a potentially vengeful second rule. This victory has been secured while embroiled in countless lawsuits, convictions, two doses of impeachments and dodging several assassination attempts. All this paired with a bombastic demeanour and relentless taste for carnage at the touch of a microphone. Many of East Africa’s leaders will be looking to see how he got away with it all with hopes of emulating the same success. Meanwhile, civilians across the region await what the 45th and 47th President of the United States of America has in store for East Africa.
Election fever is in the air. 2024 has been the year democracy took the spotlight with over half of the world’s population due to have their say in ballots by the end of December. Just this week, while many in East Africa's eyes were turned to the US, Botswana inaugurated their new president on Saturday, 9th November. Meanwhile, Mozambique is embroiled in the heat of weeks of civil unrest as it deals with the fallout of violence upon the announcement of election results on October 24th. All that alone in Southern Africa.
With East Africans being all too familiar with the volatility brought about by these delicate times, apprehension is justified at the sight of America’s comeback Commander-in-Chief. Whether or not it turns out to be justified is what necessitates an investigation into what President-elect Donald Trump feels about East Africa and what that means for the region’s social, business and security landscape.
Trump’s Tariffs vs. The African Growth and Opportunity Act
At the forefront of Trump’s advertised fiscal policies has been the proposed funding of the US federal government by tariffs. In a bid to protect domestic industries, the proposed tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump, primarily aimed at China, Mexico, and the European Union, are expected to produce substantial ripple effects across the global economy, extending to East Africa. These tariffs would not be paid by the exporting country, however. Instead, the levied cost of goods would be charged to businesses looking to import goods at the point of entry – thus further disincentivising imports.
Although East Africa is not a direct target, these tariffs would likely lead to significant disruptions due to the region’s integration into global value chains and reliance on international trade. The proposed tariffs threaten sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and energy, ultimately affecting trade balances, employment, and economic growth as the US looks to turn inward for the procurement of its goods.
In 2023, trade accounted for approximately 50%, 40%, and 33% of GDP for Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, respectively. The United States remains an important export destination, particularly under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – which allowed African countries duty-free access to the US market for certain exports. However, the new tariffs threaten to disrupt these trade relations, particularly for textiles and apparel. For instance, Kenya's apparel exports to the US and EU, valued at $550 million in 2022, could be significantly impacted. Disruptions to these exports could result in reduced foreign exchange earnings and job losses in the apparel sector, further straining economic stability.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been vital for increasing African exports, particularly in textiles and agriculture, since its inception in 2000. As it currently stands, AGOA was extended to 2025 by a Democratic US Congress. Under Trump’s Republican administration, the acts’ continuation and extension is threatened. Considering the protectionist policies on their way, there is concern that Trump could significantly limit or restructure AGOA, potentially reducing East African access to US markets and affecting export revenues and economic growth.
Trade and Agriculture
The agricultural sector, which employs over 60% of the labour force in countries such as Tanzania and Uganda, would also face considerable challenges. The proposed 60% tariff on Chinese goods could alter global purchasing patterns, increasing competition from other major producers like Brazil and Argentina. As a result, East African agricultural products could face greater difficulties accessing global markets. Smallholder farmers in Kenya are especially vulnerable, with potential income declines exacerbating rural poverty due to the country’s dependence on agricultural exports. Additionally, the reduced export potential could negatively impact agricultural value chains, affecting input suppliers and local traders, thereby amplifying the economic shock across rural communities.
SMEs, Imports and FDI
East Africa relies heavily on imported raw materials and intermediate goods, making it vulnerable to disruptions in global supply chains. For instance, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, imports from China – a primary source of intermediate goods – through Mombasa Port declined by 20% between January and February 2020, highlighting the region's vulnerability to such disruptions. The proposed tariffs could drive up input costs, leading to production slowdowns and job losses. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may struggle to remain viable, with many potentially reducing their workforce or shutting down. Rising costs in manufacturing inputs, such as steel and machinery components, could further hinder industrialisation efforts, slowing economic growth and reducing the region's competitiveness in global markets.
Trade deficits in Tanzania could widen due to increased import costs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that Tanzania's current account deficit is a result of higher capital import demand more than offsetting stronger gold exports. The Tanzanian and Kenyan shillings are likely to depreciate further, exacerbating inflation and reducing household purchasing power. The rising costs of essential goods, such as cooking oil, would disproportionately affect low-income families, straining household budgets and contributing to higher poverty levels. Inflationary pressures would not only reduce disposable income but also weaken consumer demand, further complicating economic recovery efforts.
The proposed tariffs would also impact foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into East Africa, with growing global uncertainties likely to increase investor risk aversion, leading to reduced FDI. In 2023, FDI inflows declined by 12%, and early 2024 data suggests a further 10% drop, affecting key sectors like manufacturing and infrastructure. This decline would likely delay infrastructure projects and result in job losses, such as the potential suspension of a major textile project in Ethiopia, which would have cost thousands of potential jobs. All this could hinder East Africa's long-term development prospects by delaying critical infrastructure improvements, which are necessary for enhancing productivity and facilitating trade.
Global Peace and Security
Observers would likely describe Donald Trump’s attitudes toward Africa as ambivalent at best. Allegedly referring to several African nations as ‘s—thole countries’ in 2018, Trump may be happy to leave China to continue expanding their influence over the continent as they did during his tenure. Never setting foot in East Africa during his first presidential term, this indifference to the region’s affairs may be welcomed by some. It has long been lamented that the West’s approach to trade with East African countries often comes with tedious strings attached. Alongside this, as the wars that have broken out across the world have crept closer and closer to East Africa in Trump’s absence, there is hope that his return would see to a de-escalation of the armed conflicts surrounding the region that seem to keep piling up.
Conflicts in the Red Sea led to Seychelles being among 10 countries that readied a military response to the blockade mounted by the Houthis in December 2023. This involvement did not only extend to the small island republic. Kenya’s inauguration into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as the first sub-Saharan non-NATO ally posed significant security positioning for a country only one nation over from the Red Sea. Giving the US greater access to the increasingly volatile region as Kenya’s sitting administration sought to more decisively arm itself against surrounding insecurity.
Figure 1. Outgoing US President Joe Biden hosting Kenyan President William Ruto at the White House in May 2024.
However, Donald Trump’s hostile attitude towards NATO threatens to throw these plans into jeopardy. Threatening to leave the organisation completely in 2018, Trump lamented many European countries’ lagging investments into their security, which they had complacently deferred to the American military superpower. Since then, whether due to Trump’s threats or the significant invasion effort waged against Ukraine, by 2022, NATO reported that European members and Canada had collectively raised their defence budgets by 15% compared to pre-2018 levels. Whether this will be an adequate improvement for a man that runs his foreign policy on much more explicitly transactional grounds remains to be seen. For now, the prospects that NATO holds for Kenya’s membership hangs precariously in the balance.
As for other militarised conflicts of interest to Trump, the increasingly tense environment between Egypt and Ethiopia will likely not welcome the presence of President Trump. At the heart of the conflict is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which, beginning construction in 2011, has seen protests from Sudan and Egypt. Arguing that its operation could limit their water access, this has led to protracted negotiations that have often stalled. With mediation efforts coming to a standstill, 2024 has seen the escalation of tensions between both countries. The oncoming deployment of thousands of Egyptian soldiers to Somalia in a security partnership threatens to see them operating at Ethiopia’s border for the first time.
Against the backdrop of Egyptian President Al-Sisi allegedly donating $10 million to Donald Trump’s successful 2016 presidential campaign, Trump stated regarding the conflict over the GERD that Egypt should ‘blow up’ the construction in 2020. As he returns to the White House, Ethiopia might meet this with apprehension in a similar fashion to how Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded to the comments initially, refusing to ‘cave in to aggressions of any kind.’
Social Values and Alignment
Some aspects of East Africa’s social values around religion, LGBTQ+ rights, and abortion align with certain conservative themes espoused by incoming US President Donald Trump have been celebrated. However, notable differences reveal the distinct cultural roots underpinning East African perspectives. Trump’s vocal support of traditional values and Christian conservatism during his presidency sparked global conversations. Nonetheless, while there are similarities in outlook, the foundations of East Africa’s social conservatism run much deeper, shaped by cultural, religious, and historical influences rather than political figures abroad.
One shared value between Trump and many East African societies is the emphasis on religion and traditional family values. Trump’s alignment with Evangelical Christianity pushed a vision of a return to what he portrayed as a traditional moral order. East African nations – where both Christianity and Islam play central roles – share this focus. In Kenya, for example, 95% of people say that religion is important in their lives, and this commitment to faith heavily influences social attitudes and policy choices. Like Trump’s constituents, many East Africans view religious teachings as core to personal morality and societal governance, which translates into conservative family-focused policies.
Despite these similarities, East African attitudes toward LGBTQ+ rights differ significantly from Trump’s approach. Trump’s administration, while unsupportive of LGBTQ+ protections, generally favoured a hands-off approach that aligned with libertarian values. By contrast, many East African countries actively criminalise same-sex relationships. While Trump’s policies signalled an indifference or rollback in LGBTQ+ protections, East African legislation represents a more adamant stance. These harsher policies underscore a regional commitment to traditional values around family and morality that are more ingrained than those Trump advocated.
Regarding abortion, both Trump and East African countries share a pro-life orientation, although the reasoning and severity differ. Trump’s anti-abortion stance rallied support among his religious base, leading to measures like appointing pro-life judges and limiting federal support for abortion services. East African policies are similarly restrictive, though often more so due to religious norms that prioritise family values and life preservation. In Kenya and Uganda, however, abortion is generally permitted only to save a woman’s life.
East Africa’s conservatism overlaps with Trump’s values in areas such as religious influence on public policy, anti-LGBTQ+ stances, and resistance to abortion. However, the degree and origins of conservatism in East Africa are often more intense, with policies reflecting long-standing cultural and religious beliefs. While Trump’s policies resonate in a general sense, East African social norms are primarily driven by local values rather than direct ideological alignment with any foreign political figure. These shared values are thus rooted in regional identities rather than a global conservative agenda.
Conclusion
Donald Trump's return to the White House brings mixed implications for East Africa's future, impacting trade, security, and social dynamics. While Trump's stance on tariffs and protectionism could disrupt East Africa's economic stability, local attitudes seem sympathetic to his much more brazenly nationalist pursuits. For all the ways his trade policies might be seen to affect industries reliant on global trade and partnerships, East Africa clings to the hope that these isolationist policies are indicative of a greater autonomy that the region can gain from less imperial oversight. Security implications are equally complex; Trump's historic criticisms of NATO and previous support for transactional alliances add uncertainty to Kenya’s new NATO partnership. Furthermore, his inflammatory remarks regarding the point of tension between Egypt and Ethiopia threaten more instability in an already tumultuous region.
Socially, shared values between Trump’s policies and East African cultural conservatism around issues like religion, family values, and pro-life stances indicate some ideological alignment. However, the loss of East Africa’s US market access, critical for economic growth and employment, will likely count more for East African livelihoods, as their balance sheets will likely reflect in time.
Ultimately, East African leaders and citizens will need to navigate the opportunities and challenges of a Trump-led US with the apprehension that would allow the region to react to an otherwise unpredictable world leader. Whether his passion is celebrated or feared, and his nationalism is lamented or respected, East Africa will have to wake up every morning for the next four years under the assurance that his mind is far from set on any matter. This is the vigilance that will need to be embodied in walking the tightrope that is the balancing of economic interests, security concerns, and social values. In the bid to adapt to a rapidly shifting global landscape, the United States of America still stands tallest among the rest.
