East Africa’s COP29 Gamble: The Struggle for Climate Resilience at a Fossil-Fuelled Conference of the Parties
As the 29th edition of the United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP29) comes to a close in Baku, Azerbaijan, East African countries reflect on what ground was made as they brought urgent concerns to the forefront. The 12-day conference served as a crucial platform to spotlight their unique vulnerabilities to climate impacts and advocate for tangible solutions. Anchored by the overarching theme of climate finance, the general dialogue was predicated on the challenges of translating global commitments into actionable frameworks for the regions most affected by climate-induced disruptions.
The outcomes of COP29, therefore, stand poised to determine whether East Africa’s prospect of a climate resilient future has a hope in hell after all or, like a certain cross-border infrastructure project that cannot seem to get off the ground, is just another fossil-fuelled pipedream. As though odds were not grim enough, the Azerbaijan president lauding fossil fuels as ‘a gift from God’ during the conference’s opening address set the tone for negotiations that would go on to be tarred with ambiguities, platitudes and double speak.
Setting the Stage for East Africa's Climate Challenges
The reality of East Africa’s climate predicament is best articulated in the Nairobi Declaration. Despite it being responsible for 2-3% of global emissions, the African continent is warming faster than the rest of the world, at about 50% faster per decade between 1991 and 2023. This asymmetry between cause and effect showcases a fundamental inequity in the global climate narrative, particularly as African economies haemorrhage an estimated 5% of their GDP to climate-induced disruptions – a financial wound that deepens annually.
The region’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture exemplifies its acute vulnerability to climate risks. Recent prolonged droughts have converged with systemic challenges to create a perfect amalgamation of agricultural disruption, triggering price volatility in food markets and exposing the fragility of the region’s supply chains. Furthermore, beyond the immediate agricultural impacts, climate change is systematically dismantling East Africa's natural capital. Rapid ecosystem transformations threaten wildlife populations, the foundation of the region’s tourism revenue, creating a vicious cycle of ecological deterioration and economic loss. As East Africa dances on the edge of ecological disaster, these vulnerabilities threaten to unravel fundamental pillars of the region’s economy.
With the outlook for East Africa becoming increasingly precarious, projections on climate trends continue to paint a dire picture. Temperature increases by 0.5-0.7℃ in the past decade, compounded by erratic rainfall patterns, heighten the risks of prolonged droughts and catastrophic flooding linked to El Niño events – calamitous seasons of heavy rainfall endemic to the region. These dual threats could overwhelm adaptive capacities in critical sectors such as agriculture and water resource management, further exacerbating the region’s vulnerabilities.
The imperative for green infrastructure investment is undeniable, yet it coincides with a time when African economies are least prepared to meet these financial demands. This stark irony – the inability of those most in need to finance climate resilience – exposes a glaring gap in global climate finance. These intersecting challenges demand an intervention. On jet-fuelled flights to Azerbaijan, delegates should contemplate recalibrating global climate financing and support mechanisms. This would steer East Africa’s participation in COP29 toward securing financial resources necessary to address its escalating climate crises.
East Africa's Role and Participation in COP29
The East African Community (EAC), in collaboration with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), spearheaded East Africa's involvement in COP29. This strategic partnership aimed to secure international support for the region's complex climate challenges while aligning with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) framework.
The EAC’s stance revolved around two axes: the mobilisation of climate finance and the articulation of region-specific vulnerabilities. The delegation prioritised the integration of capacity-building mechanisms such as technology sharing and skill-building initiatives with the intent of East Africa adopting practical long term climate solutions. Particularly in areas where climate impacts intersect with development needs – agriculture, energy, and transportation.
Reassuringly, Claver Gatete, United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), eloquently captured the urgency of climate financing on the first day of the conference. The former Rwandan Minister of Infrastructure asserted, “the cost of inaction is far greater than the investment required to build a resilient and prosperous future for Africa.”
Figure 1. Mr. Claver Gatete speaking at COP29.
His postulation aligns with findings from the Global Commission on Adaptation, which estimate that every dollar spent on climate adaptation generates approximately four dollars in benefits. However, Mr. Gatete’s remarks encapsulated the economic calculus at play, as well as the broader position of African nations, who perceived COP29 as being more focused on rhetorical posturing rather than actionable commitments.
This tension was amplified by Nairobi based Nation Media Group’s sustainability editor, Zeynab Wandati, whose incisive reporting dissected the contradictions that plagued COP29. Wandati highlighted the stark paradox of hosting climate negotiations in a petro-state. Azerbaijan's economy thrives on oil and gas, which make up an estimated 90% of exports and two thirds of its GDP. Its rich history as an oil powerhouse dates to the 19th century, when Baku stood at the forefront of global oil production.
Furthermore, the Azerbaijan President’s, Ilham Aliyev, characterisation of fossil fuels as ‘a gift from God’ served as a telling backdrop to negotiations meant to accelerate the global energy transition. Amid such contradictions, East Africa’s active role at COP29 emerges as a counterpoint, marking a decisive phase in its climate diplomacy as it seeks to drive meaningful frameworks and commitments for its climate response.
Key Outcomes of COP29 for East Africa
Developed nations proposed a new climate finance goal of $250 billion annually from a variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral including alternative sources of financing. However, this figure was eventually revised during the late hours of Saturday, 24th November 2024 and passed by COP President, Mukhtar Babayev, to a total up to $300 billion by 2035. Despite this agreement, the initial figure was met with criticism from developing nations who argue that it falls short of the $500 billion that they deemed necessary to effectively combat climate impacts, let alone the initial figure of $1.3 trillion annually by 2030.
The proposed climate finance figures mentioned above are important in addressing mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage in the vulnerable regions such as East Africa. The $300 billion target will help in the funding of particularly crucial areas like droughts. Cases include those in the northern Kenyan village of Badanrero, floods in the Eastern, Western, and Northern regions of Uganda that resulted in a 65,250 people being displaced, and the plausible reality of Tanzania having 61% of their landmass turning into deserts due to degradation.
The funds could also be possibly used in the expanding of energy infrastructure needed to deliver the energy generated from the various renewable energy sources. For instance, Kenya’s Olkaria that generates about 83.3 MW of energy and the soon to be commissioned 24 MW solar power plant that secured funding from the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund during COP28. Despite all the potential benefits from the proposed figures, it still falls short of the figure needed to fully address the climate needs of developing countries, let alone that East Africa has to deal with both rising debt and the fact that $300 billion figure will most likely include concessional loans.
Discussions at COP29 highlighted the need for explicit commitments to transition away from fossil fuels. While some developed and majority of developing countries supported clear language on this transition, others, including major fossil fuel producers such as those from the International Emissions Trading Association that brought in the largest number of representatives from oil giants like TotalEnergies and Glencore, resisted such explicit commitments. This COP29 was coined 'another oil-stained climate change conference,' further emphasised by more than 1700 fossil fuel lobbyists or industry players registered to attend.
In addition to the somewhat failed talks on commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, pledges aimed at enhancing technology transfer and capacity building were discussed with entities like the non-profit investor Acumen, committing $300 million over five years to support agricultural adaption projects in regions including East Africa. The $300 million pledged by Acumen is with the goal of closing the agrifood adaptation finance gap, help 40 million farmers increase yields, and increasing crop diversity of 10 million small and vulnerable farmers.
Impact on East Africa
One could say that the increased pledge in climate financing to assist poorer countries in transitioning from fossil fuels and helping weather the effects of climate change is notable. However, as previously highlighted by the African Development Bank, despite contributing less than 4% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Africa disproportionately bears the brunt of the climate crisis. All this whilst receiving only 3% to 4% of global climate financing meant to deal with climate related changes.
This reality is bleak and exasperated by the fact that around 101 companies operate mines that control $1 trillion worth of Africa’s natural resources and only highlights the fact that a majority of the countries experiencing the effects of climate change are in Africa with countries ranging from Sudan, Eritrea to the Central African Republic, and Chad. This disproportionate effect on countries that produce a comparatively minute amount of greenhouse gases only goes to highlight the dissatisfaction that African countries expressed with the proposed annual figure of $300 billion.
However, translating the COP29 agreements into tangible benefits at the regional level poses challenges. The allocation and disbursement of funds require robust governance structures to ensure transparency and effectiveness. East African nations must navigate complex bureaucratic processes to access these funds which could lead to delays in project implementations. This is augmented by the fact that proposed financing goals involve loans that do not consider national debt of receiving countries that have to be serviced with interest. This leaves plights under sectors such as health, education and agriculture inadequately addressed and poorly funded if at all.
Despite all these challenges, COP29 has presented opportunities to increase the pace of sustainable development and green energy projects in East Africa. The conference emphasised a need for increased investment in renewable energy which aligns with East Africa’s existing momentum in utilising their natural resources [SM25] to generate clean energy. Kenya, for instance, already generates approximately 90% of its electricity from renewable sources, primarily geothermal and hydroelectric electricity. The region’s renewable dominance appears to stand out as a paradoxical blend of abundance amid systemic scarcity. Layered within this narrative is the emerging considerations of nuclear energy. Tanzania holds an estimated 40,000-60,000 tonnes of uranium beneath its soil. This buried potential is theoretically capable of supporting regional energy autonomy, yet it remains locked within a web of bureaucratic inertia, fragmented governance structures, prohibitive upfront costs, and the absence of a skilled domestic workforce capable of shepherding such a venture from vision to fruition.
Despite these hurdles, Uganda and Kenya have emerged as early movers in the region’s nuclear ambitions. In 2023, Uganda announced plans to construct a 2000 MW nuclear plant 150 km north of Kampala, with the first 1000 MW set to become operational by 2031. Earlier this year, Kenya unveiled its intentions to establish the countries first nuclear plant along the coast of the Indian Ocean by 2034.
While these nations strive to lead the region in nuclear integration, they face the dual challenge of building the infrastructure and governance systems required to realise these projects while navigating the broader complexities of financing, technology and public acceptance. The enhanced international support, albeit limited, could aid accelerating such projects and subsidiarily lead to economic growth and energy security.
The Dilemma of Displacement
The fight against climate change in East Africa presents a double-edged sword: on one side lies the urgency to mitigate disasters like floods, rising sea levels, and hunger, and on the other, the often-overlooked costs of such efforts – particularly for vulnerable communities. As the region welcomes international assistance and interventions to address climate disasters, these solutions sometimes come with significant consequences.
For instance, while millions of East Africans live in areas at risk from climate-related threats, the pursuit of disaster mitigation has displaced 70,000 indigenous Maasai and 200,000 of their livestock from a 1,500 km2 area in the Loliondo Division of Ngorongoro District, just east of Tanzania’s Serengeti. This displacement stems from agreements aimed at protecting carbon capture areas, orchestrated by foreign entities such as Dubai-based organisation, Blue Carbon. While these agreements promise to protect vital carbon sinks, they often come with caveats, such as game hunting operations, which trivialise the broader goal of environmental preservation. Off the back of purchasing 8% of Tanzania’s land, the organisation has expanded its reach to a fifth of Zimbabwe, 10% of Liberia and millions of hectares in Kenya under the banner of combating climate change. Candidly, East Africa could do without the irony of the Maasai being chased from their ancestral lands in the name of ‘conservation’.
Kenya is also entering similar arrangements, recently securing funding through the UK Partnering for Accelerated Climate Transitions (UK PACT) program, with the UK has committed £5.4 million to assist Kenya's energy transition and forest protection initiatives. However, the intricate details and stipulations within these agreements remain unclear, raising concerns about sovereignty and the true costs of such initiatives. Already, human rights lawyers allege the Kenyan government is illegally evicting the Ogiek people from the Mau Forest to profit from carbon offsetting schemes. These situations leave East Africa at a crossroads: balancing the need for climate solutions with the imperative to protect its people, lands, and autonomy.
The challenge for East Africa is to navigate this delicate balance with vigilance. While international support is welcomed and necessary, the region must remain cautious of potential neocolonial dynamics masquerading as climate action. True progress will require not just adopting solutions but doing so in a way that safeguards sovereignty, respects indigenous communities, and ensures equitable benefits for all stakeholders.
Conclusion
East Africa’s experience at COP29 marks an inflection point in Africa's climate journey. While international forums provide platforms for advocacy, the tangible impacts of rising temperatures, agricultural disruption, and economic strain continue to outpace diplomatic progress. The $300 billion agreement forged in Baku hold promise, but its true impact will depend on swift, strategic implementation of sub-agreements at both regional and national levels. Collaborative frameworks among East African nations, bolstered by robust international support, will be essential to bridge the financing and capacity gaps that have long hindered progress.
Ultimately, what lies ahead for East Africa’s delicate landscape will be found within its ability to decipher altruism from underhandedness within grinning responses to the region’s self-advocacy. There could not be a worse time to throw caution to the wind as the urgency of the matter at hand grows more evident by the day. Soon, it will be increasingly clear whether East Africa’s climate challenges will turn into opportunities for resilient, sustainable development, or whether the region will remain caught in the crosshairs of a crisis not of its own making.
